O jogo da anexação da Crimeia : o conflito ucraniano sob a ótica da teoria dos jogos.

Abstract

The Eastern European country, Ukraine, lives a serious social and political crisis, which began in November 2013, when the President, Viktor Yanukovich, backed out of signing a free trade agreement and political association with the European Union (EU). Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets to protest, which led to Yanukovych to leave the Presidency and call for new elections. With this, Russia began to interfere more actively in the country through military exercises, as in the Crimean peninsula, the region hitherto belonging to Ukraine, but that later was annexed by the Russians. This Russian position triggered one of the most serious current conflicts in Europe. In this context, the game theory becomes valuable to analyze this diplomatic impasse. The present study uses as a method of the hypothetical-deductive research, and research problem create a game representing the annexation of Crimea by Russia, checking on the actual situation of the conflict, if there has a Nash equilibrium in pure strategies. From the theoretical analysis of the game theory a case is create to study in order to better understand the existence of the Ukrainian conflict and the activities of international actors involved – Russia, Ukraine, EU and United States of America (USA). The general objective is to carry out a study about the Ukrainian crisis, from 2013, representing her in a game of annexation of Crimea, identifying the behavior of actors and what were yours strategic processes used. To this end, specific objectives explain the game theory; perform a historical mapping of Ukraine, in which is displayed the political and cultural trajectory of the country; carry out the annexation of Crimea by Russia, identifying the actors participating in the conflict and how to behave; and, finally, check for a Nash equilibrium in pure strategies in the current scenario. Given that, through the application of game theory in international relations, one can see through the game developed that you can represent such a conflict in a game, in addition to making sure there was a Nash equilibrium.