Análise e proposição de ferramentas estatísticas na previsão de demanda em indústria de artefatos de plásticos.

Abstract

The growing strength of the market competitiveness levels companies reduce their costs, causing inventory reductions and generating the challenge to predict or determine the correct amount of production according to your demand. Thus, Demand Forecasting is used as an aid to planning tool, as fast, accurate answers are required within companies. This research was developed based on current techniques and concepts that guide the demand forecast and aimed to investigate and evaluate the use of statistical and computational tools in demand forecasting optimization process developed through a case study in a company motorcycle accessories manufacturer, which evaluated the production system. In order to align demand forecasting models, we used historical sales data that were deployed in NCSS statistical tool. The construction of the modeling was based on the method proposed by Armstrong (2001), and from statistical modeling were generated demand forecast scenarios. In results found evidenced the level of effectiveness of the methods adopted and the management gains by using the forecasting tools, because there have been good results of accuracy of the data passed the forecasts made where the representativeness of the forecasts generated by the NCSS software showed the values 0.64 to R², and validated the methodology.