Os impactos dos novos acordos de livre comércio sobre o mercado de arroz no Brasil : um modelo de alocação espacial e temporal.

Abstract

This study aims to identify the effects of new free trade agreements on Brazilian rice producers, and how they affect the other main regions in the world market. In the beginning trade agreements are analysed in multilateral and regional scope and the main te ndencies. In this analysis main market distortions and their effects are identified in the agriculture markets. Among agricultur al products traded in the internacional market, the rice receives the greater part of attention with support of countries and economic bloc s. For this reason, the rice market is limited to 5% of world production, and prices have been reducing for decades. However, to understand what the most important mechanisms that work in this market are, it describes the main regions, the domestic and ma rket policies and how they proceed in the international area. Besides, the choice of this study area is based in two points: commerce and regional relationship with Mercado Comun del Sur (MERCOSUR) countries and the relevance in terms of production, consumption and trade. In the first group, are MERCOSUR, Comunidad Andina (CAN) and European Union (EU). In the second group, are China, Association of Southeast Asian Nations Free Trade (ASEAN) and South Asian Preferential Trading Arrangement (SAPTA). In this analysis, are appraised the countries and regions performance in the world market and the relationship between individual performance and political support. To analyze the new trade agreement effects in the rice market, it is necessary to develop a spatial and temporal model using a Mixed Complementarity Problems (MCP) that consider tariffs barriers and subsidies. There are five alternative scenarios: the first scenario encompasses the multilateral trade agreements which consider diminishing tariffs barriers and subsidies. Other group includes the regional trade agreements which are shaped by scenario 2 (MERCOSUR-CAN), scenario 3 (Free Trade Area of Americas – FTAA) and scenario 4 (MERCOSUR-EU). At last, the fifth scenario is subdivided in two groups: the first considers the creation of a free trade area between ASEAN and China; and the second examines the entering of China in World Trade Organization. Among the scenarios studied, the best scenarios to Brazilian producers are MERCOSUR-CAN and MERCOSUR-EU. However, in these scenarios there are losses to Brazilian consumers and losses to CAN and EU producers.