Desindustrialização em Taubaté : uma análise estruturalista das transformações sociais e econômicas no período 2010 - 2021.

Abstract

This thesis deals with the phenomenon of deindustrialization in Brazil, with a specific focus on the municipality of Taubaté, in the time frame between 2010 and 2021. The main objective was to investigate the effects of deindustrialization and its impact on municipal economic development. The research is based on a theoretical and empirical analysis, which includes a literature review on the causes, characteristics and consequences of deindustrialization, as well as a descriptive analysis of the municipality's historical and social data. The methodology used involves collecting data from various academic databases, such as the CAPES Journals Portal and the Scopus database, resulting in a total of 398 relevant papers. The research seeks to understand the evolution of the concept of deindustrialization, the fall in industrial employment, public policies related to deindustrialization, subsector heterogeneity and the structural changes that have taken place in Taubaté. In addition, the regional differences in the VTI/VBPI ratio were analyzed, looking at the relationship between economic and industrial indicators specific to the municipality, considering the reasons for the divergent behavior of the process in the region and in the municipality. The changes in the dynamics of the economic sectors were also explored through a literature review with an emphasis on the main concepts of the composition of the industrial sector, taking into account the national situation and regional and municipal specificities. The results show that the municipality's deindustrialization seems to be associated with a drop in the Industrial Transformation Value (VTI), which fell significantly by 45.4%. This sharp drop suggests that local industries have lost competitiveness and productive capacity, which is a clear indication of deindustrialization. The VTI index had a direct impact on the performance of other indicators, such as job creation and the industrial sector's contribution to local GDP. It was found that industrial jobs fell by 28.44% in the period and that the reduction of almost 30% in formal industrial jobs is directly related to the decline in VTI. Industrial Gross Value Added (GVA) also fell, by 30.95% over the period studied, reinforcing the understanding of the economic impact and industrial shrinkage in the local economy. It can be concluded from the combined analysis of the data that Taubaté has faced a process of deindustrialization characterized by a decrease in the contribution of industry to the local economy, a loss of formal jobs in the industrial sector and a reduction in industrial transformation capacity. These factors suggest an economic reconfiguration, with a possible migration of workers and activities to other sectors, such as commerce and services.