Comportamento e ações do Banco Central do Brasil durante períodos de transição governamental : uma análise da política monetária.

Abstract

This study analyzes the conduct of the Central Bank of Brazil's monetary policy during two governmental transition cycles (2018 and 2022) by analyzing the content of the Copom Minutes. The objective was to understand the monetary authority's technical discipline when facing political and fiscal risks. In 2018, the Selic rate, at 6.50% per year, was maintained due to economic slack and the prescription of expansionary policy. In 2022, the maintenance at 13.75% per year was dominated by fiscal risk and persistent inflation, which deteriorated long-term expectations. It is concluded that the Copom's technical coherence prevailed in both periods. However, the 2022 fiscal risk imposed a more severe test. The Committee used explicit communication and a strategy of persistence to defend institutional credibility, signaling prolonged high interest rates as the cost of fiscal instability to ensure price stability.