Tendências e preditores da criminalidade violenta no Rio Grande do Sul.

Abstract

This theses analyses main tendencies and causes of violent crimes in three socio-cultural regions of the State of Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil) – Colonia Velha, Fronteira and the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre – through the decade of the 1990´s and the beginning of the following one. Violent crime was dealt with in terms of crime rates per 100.000 inhabitants for intentional homicides, aggravated assaults and robberies. Along with those, two kinds of social scenarios of crimes were analyzed. One includes non-organized aggressors victimizing friends and acquaintances through threats and minor assaults. The second one includes also non-organized agressors, but this time victimizing individuals unrelated to them through ordinary types of robberies. Conjointly with socioeconomic factors, the explanatory model included: social predisposition for violence, supply of social safety services and community prevention measures. The presence of youth gangs and organized crime are also incorporated, representing the internal dinamics of violent criminality. Different theoretical currents in sociology and criminology were used to sustain the inclusion of the variables. Social as well as crime indicators were designed and collected from primary and secondary sources, for 32 state counties [municípios] with population equal or above 20.000 inhabitants within the regions contemplated. From such data set, multivariate analysis were performed estimating the influence of each indicator over the crime rates. In terms of results, the following explanatory factors stand out: a) for intentional homicides: level of urbanization, presence of school gangs and use of private safety services; b) for aggravated assaults: persons living alone, level of illegal drugs trade, and registered guns; c) for robberies: inadequacy of housing and private safety services; d) for the type-one scenario: family vulnerability; e) for the type-two scenario: private safety services. The theses also presents an extensive bibliographical review of the main analytical currents of violent crime research in Brazil as well as a squeme of strategies for dealing with violent crime.