(In)viabilidade da transformação na matriz energética brasileira.

Abstract

The current status of the energy mix is unsustainable because their dependence on fossil materials implies high environmental impact and unpreparedness for changes that mean breaking the dominant design. This can be understood by the Peak Oil theory and the entropic approach of the economic process, originated in Physics, indicating solar energy as ideal efficiency and conservation low entropy. To understand the barriers to change towards the idealized, is used as a theoretical basis the New Institutional Economics, contrasting historical change attempts of the energy matrix and the situation of the energy market, focusing on Brazil. The analysis also makes use of the concepts of the Austrian School of economics, focusing on market process and private agents. Thus, the preparation of key opportunity to change handle friendly institutional environment for market process affirmed by the Austrian School. The methodology used was deducted complemented by historical research, to understand the barriers the current status form the inflection in the energy matrix and building environment favorable to it. The construction undertaken indicates inadequacy of the current institutional environment to change in the energy matrix, and the changes necessary for adaptation should be performed by action at the institutional level, so that it is propitious to the market process, which can lead to inflection in production model economic. However, the changes relate to the Brazilian macroeconomic context, and it appears that even the adequacy of the institutional environment, providing stable environment for business activity through inclusive institutions of global scope in the economic context; not enough to change, because economic instability constitute disincentives to business activity.